How Accurate Are Groundhog Day Forecasts?

(EndPlay Staff Reports) - The country's most famous groundhog is ready to make his annual weather prediction. Punxsutawney Phil will tell us Thursday if spring will come early or winter will linger on.

Just how much faith should we put in Phil's forecast? Not very much, apparently.

According to figures from the Stormfax Almanac , he's only right about 39 percent of the time.

This is the 126th year Punxsutawney Phil has been tapped to predict the weather. Over the years, he's cast a shadow 99 times, indicating an early winter; produced no shadow 16 times, suggesting early spring; and the club is missing records for nine years.

Last year, Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter. Was he right? It depends on what part of the country you were in: The South and Southeast saw an early spring thanks to La Nina , while the central part of the country was dumped with extra snow. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states saw above or below normal temperatures, but the Southwest experienced a warm, dry winter and early spring.

We shouldn't blame Phil for his lack of forecast insight, though. According to a blog post by " Freakonomics " writer Stephen J. Dunbar, meteorologists rarely have any clue "what's going to happen [in the weather] beyond three days out."

This year, NOAA is calling for early spring in the South and Southeast and a longer winter in the Upper Plains and Northwest. We'll see what Phil has to say about it this year on Feb. 2.